Dissonant Weather
JUNE WEATHER FORECAST
ATMOSPHERIC SUMMARY Long-term forecasting is very challenging in the best of times. But this El Niño is now on track to become the world's strongest on record, sending quite an enormous amount of thermal and kinetic energy across the eastern Pacific and ultimately...
WEATHER FORECAST: MAY 2026
4-WEEK FORECAST • (100 hPa Wave-1 Heights) A persistent stratospheric polar vortex core has been getting disrupted since May 17–18, causing cold air to channel south through the Bering Sea, then southeast directly towards Oregon. • (Coastal Northwest Sea...
MARCH 29 DISSONANT WEATHER REPORT
QUICK SUMMARY Temperatures will begin to drop this weekend. A strong atmospheric river arrives Tuesday night, March 31. Every other night this coming week could reach 29–38°, with patchy fog and frost on some nights. The first half of April will probably be...
FEBRUARY WEATHER FORECAST
FEBRUARY WEATHER FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC SUMMARY With Valentine's Day still on my mind, I woke up before dawn last Wednesday as the outside temperature dropped below 30°, curled up in a tight ball—evidence of the wintry cold snap I sketched out last month. I thought...
January Weather Report 2026
FOUR-WEEK SUMMARY An ongoing, tropical, westerly wind burst (WWB) and subsequent rapid advance of the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) should begin to enhance precipitation potential (to some degree) across western Oregon within the next two weeks. The state...
LATE NOVEMBER and EARLY DECEMBER SUMMARY
Unlike last month, I wasn't able to put together a plain language forecast. I apologize for that, but please bear with me as I have tried to explain some of the more technical terms below. • (ECMWF time-longitude Hovmöller) Strong Rossby wave flow is quickly...
Dissonant Weather: October
OCTOBER FORECAST Hey folks, I'm doing things slightly different this month. Due to a complex transition into Autumn, and for other reasons, I'm composing a more technical, extensive summary and polar vortex forecast, while adding some speculative thoughts about early...
September Forecast
EARLY AUTUMN SUMMARY By and large, the first half of October has done almost a complete 180° turn towards Autumn weather in just two days, and a series of fairly moderate storm systems this week could help seal the deal. Starting this weekend, a blocking pattern of...
August Forecast
EARLY AUTUMN SUMMARY A counterpart south of Asia to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in the Pacific, is called the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). That oscillation can have an outsized effect on our weather in North America and beyond, at times. In tandem with...
Dissonant Weather- Summer 2025
MAY–AUGUST SUMMARY (mostly somewhat technical) I apologize for not posting a forecast last month. I was busy after June 16 preparing for a big conference and also had some ongoing personal struggles. One glance at this first chart should tell you there's a lot going...
